Turkey Steps Up

“We are here at a moment when the region is more and more characterized by instability but Turkey is characterized more and more by stability.”

Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum

“We need a stable Turkey to help Europe tackle today’s challenges and risks. It is the responsibility of the EU to cooperate with Turkey and to support Turkish reforms. The process needs to be finished with success.”

Joaquín Almunia, Commissioner, Economic and Monetary Affairs, European Commission, Brussels

“Turkey has all the ingredients to become a global force, politically and economically.”

Ali Y. Koç, President, Koç Information Technology Group, Koç Holding, Turkey

“Turkey’s significance does not stem from its role as an energy supplier.”

Gareth Evans, President, International Crisis Group, Belgium

“Perceptions in Europe lag ten years behind reality. Europe was uninterested in Turkey in the early 1990s and gave no thought to its role in the energy sector. Now energy is the hot issue.”

Huge Pope, author and journalist, Turkey

Glance at a world map and Turkey’s unique geopolitical position is obvious. Literally at the strategic crossroads where West collides with East, this stable, secular, moderate Muslim democracy straddles Europe and Asia. A staunch member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the bulwark of Western European security during the Cold War, Turkey is in the midst of applying for membership in the European Union (EU), the most ambitious regional integration project in the world that began with Western Europe and has since absorbed countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Yet with its cultural and linguistic links that stretch to Central Asia and even as far as North Asia and the Islamic faith which it shares with neighbours in the Middle East and North Africa, Turkey is firmly rooted among the civilizations of the East.

Despite its record of three military coups, Turkey has chosen the path of stability and democracy, uneasy as it may be. The decision to aim for EU accession and launch into the tough negotiations required for membership underscored Turkish commitment to modernization and reform. When an Islamist government was elected in 2003, fears that Turkey’s secular foundation might crack proved unfounded. While its neighbourhood “is more and more characterized by instability, Turkey is characterized more and more by stability,” noted Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum.

Indeed, Turkey is all the more remarkable because it belongs to two distinct and exclusive groups. It is one of the few moderate Islamic countries in the world – Indonesia and Malaysia are two other examples – that have embraced democratic politics and pursued free market policies to promote growth. And while Turkey is only a mid-sized country with a population (73 million) smaller than Germany’s but larger than France’s, its 8%-plus economic growth is brisk enough to inspire some investors to bracket it with that fascinating club of dynamic emerging markets known as the BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China.

And while economic growth and prosperity and its pursuit of reform will further strengthen its political and social stability, it will also enhance its power and influence, whether or not it eventually joins the EU. “Turkey is not a supplicant,” said meeting Co-Chair Peter D. Sutherland, Chairman, Goldman Sachs International, United Kingdom, and Member of the Foundation Board of the World Economic Forum. “It is a major player in the world in which we live.” Consider the recent conflict in Lebanon and the decision by the Turks to join peacekeeping operations there. Turkey’s military, still a powerful institution, is the largest armed force in Europe.

Turkey has clashed with the US over the Turkish parliament’s refusal to let the country be used by American forces as a staging ground for the Iraq war. Ties with Israel have been strained over the Palestinian issue and the Lebanon conflict. Despite these disputes, Turkey has maintained its close strategic relationship with both countries. Clearly, Turkey is more forcefully asserting its interests in its foreign policy and deepening its engagement in the region as a defender of peace and stability. “Turkey has all the ingredients to become a global force, politically and economically,” said Ali Y. Koç, President, Koç Information Technology Group, Koç Holding, Turkey.

Yet outsiders particularly in Europe have not appreciated how Turkey and its geopolitical have evolved. “Perceptions in Europe lag ten years behind reality,” said Huge Pope, former Wall Street Journal reporter and a leading Turkey analyst. “Europe was uninterested in Turkey in the early 1990s and gave no thought to its role in the energy sector. Now energy is the hot issue.” Indeed, Turkey is emerging as an important nexus for oil and gas pipelines from Russia’s Caspian region, Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa to Europe. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline running from Azerbaijan to Turkey’s southeaster coast via Georgia, which was launched this year, is the second longest such conduit in the world. While in its initial stage the pipeline will supply only 1% of global demand, it is an important step in the diversification of the sources of petroleum and will make a critical contribution to global energy security. By aligning its energy policies with Europe’s, Turkey could reap enormous strategic and financial benefits from its energy initiatives.

Yet in Europe, Turkey’s potential as an energy artery is still a matter of debate. “There is a tacit belief that energy is not a card Turkey brings to the table,” said Sinan Ülgen, Chairman, Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), Turkey. Of course, it is important not to exaggerate the contribution Turkey could make to Europe’s energy security. “Turkey’s significance does not stem from its role as an energy supplier,” Gareth Evans, President, International Crisis Group, Belgium, pointed out. To be sure, the reality is that Turkey is already an integral part of the global campaign against terrorism and a voice against militant Islamic extremism. It demonstrates every day how Islam and secularism can co-exist in the context of economic growth and increasing prosperity.

Turkey’s stability, however, cannot be taken for granted. Guardians of secularism, notably the military, remain fearful of religious agendas. The economy was rocked by a financial crisis only five years ago, leading to a major plunge in the value of the currency. The lira was hit again earlier this year, dropping 29%. Interest rates rose nearly seven points. Turks head to the polls in 2007. Another smooth election will surely solidify further its democracy. But EU membership is now a more divisive issue since support for accession among Turks has fallen sharply. And anti-Europe, anti-US and anti-Israel sentiment has risen.

For this reason, it is crucial that Europe and the US recognize Turkey’s considerable geopolitical value and provide it with the appropriate financial, strategic and moral support the country needs to continue necessary political and economic reforms and realize its ambitions including EU accession. Concluded Joaquín Almunia, Commissioner, Economic and Monetary Affairs, European Commission, Brussels, in remarks that apply as much to the rest of the world as they do to Europe: “We need a stable Turkey to help Europe tackle today’s challenges and risks. It is the responsibility of the EU to cooperate with Turkey and to support Turkish reforms. The process needs to be finished with success.”